“Without coalescing around a singular plan, multiple options will likely only continue to muddy the waters,” said Caleb Knapp, senior policy manager at The Alliance for Secure AI. And should the House flip in November, that “will make winning over Democrats this year even more difficult.”
Lawmakers must overcome long odds to pass a federal standard on artificial intelligence this year as the White House pushes for action.
President Donald Trump in March released a roadmap to address the transformative technology, asking Congress to create a regulatory framework that overrides state laws on AI, focused on bolstering the industry while upholding some safeguards.
Agreeing on federal AI legislation and building enough support for passage will prove difficult, though, especially as Congress returns to Washington with a packed agenda that includes the Iran war and funding the government. Lawmakers also face a tightened calendar as the midterm elections near. Many close observers stressed urgency to act on AI but acknowledged the obstacles ahead.
“The chances are quite unrealistic,” said K.J. Bagchi, vice president of US policy and government relations at industry group Chamber of Progress. Not to mention, “officials are much more cautious about jumping in on some of these controversial issues, such as state preemption” during election season.
House and Senate leaders have vowed to work on legislation. Republicans, who hold slim majorities in both chambers, plan to engage with Democrats on a potential path forward, but may also consider their own approach as they pursue an upcoming GOP-only tax-and-spending bill. Democrats, for their part, are crafting their AI policy agenda but also negotiating with Republicans.
“Without coalescing around a singular plan, multiple options will likely only continue to muddy the waters,” said Caleb Knapp, senior policy manager at The Alliance for Secure AI. And should the House flip in November, that “will make winning over Democrats this year even more difficult.”
Bipartisan Challenges
Trump’s framework calls for legislation that would promote America’s global dominance in AI and prioritize certain safeguards, such as protecting children online and shielding communities from higher power costs associated with data centers.
At the center of Trump’s proposal is preemption. In lieu of congressional action, states have enacted guardrails on AI, and tech companies are seeking one national standard to replace them.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said Republicans are willing to work with Democrats on a framework. Rep. Jay Obernolte (Calif.), a lead Republican on AI policy, is preparing to introduce a comprehensive bill and trying to secure Democratic support. His proposal would address state preemption, he has said.
Yet the task is politically contentious. Republicans and Democrats alike have balked at the prospect of legislation that may be too weak or too burdensome for the industry. Lawmakers likely will have to strike a balance if they want to make progress on a bipartisan framework.
What we’re seeing is Republican leadership “trying to be really responsive to what the White House has set as a priority” but we’re not seeing a “very serious effort,” said Bagchi.
“I’d be thrilled to have it done this year,” Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) said of a potential AI bill, though he noted the challenges posed by the November elections. Beyer and Obernolte also help lead a bipartisan AI caucus that’s been hosting educational meetings. The next event, open to all lawmakers, will take place later this month and feature Nobel prize-winning scientist Geoffrey Hinton, widely considered the “Godfather of AI.”
Uncertainty Reigns
Still, current efforts on AI and tech have turned more partisan, further dimming hopes for a concrete deal. Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee last month advanced a package, without Democrats, that intends to strengthen internet protections for youth. GOP lawmakers are also working on their own data privacy bill.
Some policy advocates, such as Americans for Responsible Innovation, have raised concerns about Republicans potentially trying again to halt state AI laws without a strong federal standard, which they tried but failed to do last year.
House Democrats, separately, are consulting with officials from industry, civil society, and academia to help devise the party’s AI policy platform. Their newly launched commission, co-chaired by Reps. Ted Lieu (Calif.), Josh Gottheimer (N.J.), and Valerie Foushee (N.C.), has held a handful of sessions over the past two months to discuss priorities. The first briefing is scheduled for April 17, when members will get an overview of AI and its use cases.
Tech industry officials are encouraged by the increased attention yet voiced uncertainty about legislation passing. In the meantime, states are moving ahead with their AI regulations.
“There is a Venn diagram of areas where you do have pretty strong bipartisan support” and within that “you could see action,” said Liz O’Bagy, director of federal policy and AI policy lead at industry group TechNet. “Even short of a big comprehensive bill passing this year, there is a lot of room for incremental action that makes important progress for the future.”